Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Openning Day

And they're off!

I elected to look at four of the opening days performances: Verlander, Greinke, Lincecum, and Halladay. Honourable mentions go to Marcum and Jimenez who set aside six each. Also interesting was Seam Marshall who in 2.67 innings missed 5 Brave bats with 5 swoopy curveballs.

Verlander: Last year’s victor took the start versus the royally inept, baby blue clad, Kansas ball club and despite having his fastball at top speed, and both off-speed offerings working, he managed a mere 6 K’s in the process. As a silver lining he did make Rick Ankiel and Scott Podsednik look pretty hapless.

Greinke: Normally very diverse operator in the realm of punch-outs, yesterday Zach was only able to seal the deal with sliders, and only four times at that. An unrealistic conjecture of pop-sport psychology would posit that as a result of today’s bullpen melt down, Greinke will –to this site’s chagrin - ditch high Pitch-Count/Strikeout strategy for a more Contact-based/higher inning total approach. Dam you Robinson Tejada. Dam you Juan Cruz. Dam you Roman Colon.

Lincecum’s change is officially a “double plus good” pitch. More interesting was the absence of strikeouts with his fastball. In his first inning he worked up to 95 mph, but by the seventh it was a 90-92 mph pitch. Early season rust, I suppose. Also interesting was his frequent use of the 83 mph breaking pitch (over the 77 mph version) which last year he used only about 5% of the time.

The Doctor was in the national league. If one game is anything to go from (it’s not really) he’ll have no problem leading the majors in K’s following the offseason Junior-2-Senior circuit swap. If anything I think it just means we should watch the Nationals as a source for high strikeout games. In any event, Halladay pounded the zone to great success. Six of the K’s were on pitches in the strike zone, and seven were on four pitches or less. In short: Dominance.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

2009 Revisited

The Strikeout race is back.[with great firmness and conviction and bravery and great firmness] Not that anyone missed it or anything. or knew it existed. or will know it now exists again. sigh.

Anyhow, this post is to recap the exciting 2009 race which was vastly under reported, on this site, so at least you'll know what was missed I guess.

One imagines the 2009 strikeout as the Mint 400, we watch as a seemingly endless set of competitors begin, one after another, racing into a dusty, nebulous playing field, as unsure of the victor as we are of who will cross the finish line at all. In absence of suitable viewing ground, we peer out into the fray catching glimpses of brief leaders, stellar passes, and daring failures, horrific crashes, and hopeless non-starters.

First we excite ourselves over the Santana’s; for Senõr Flatbrim we kick the earth as he grinds his bike in to the dirt, soon to be uplifted in the excitement of similarly appellated Johan: A king of yesteryear, home and rightened to reclaim the crown he so convincingly wore for years. But 44 in April, and 44 in May, wanes to 18 in June, and his performance decline to his backers dismay, injury eventually calls off his whole race.

His fellow fast starter, Grienke, the prodigal son, ship finally righted, sails catching the full brunt of the wind, and we dazzle in the juxtaposing of his childish countenance and elders icy’s glare. Though he too falls victim to the June like Johan, the triumph is his young arrival, and we mark his name down in the margin with a note to put a ten or two on his odds for next summer.

The usual suspects of strikeout lists, the Harens, the Halladays, the Vasquez, making their usual appearances, putting in their usual numbers, holding court as usual. Perhaps however, if your gaze, as ours does, sets upon on the leader of the pack - and the leader only - their work is a bit too usual, only irregular caprice allows the precocious to find their way to the peak of the pickings, alas, we admire these soldiers none the less.

A crowd of just such precocious folk did however appear on the scene only to crash and burn far from the finish line: Harden, Volquez, Billingsley, Gallardo, Bedard, the names we dreamt all in one dream, all as one ethos, pained, ripped, torn, snapped, until the dream thickened into scar tissue, purple and fresh from the surgeons blade. A clock ticks on the bedside, set to ring in February, when the full body cast shall be removed, and with the catchers, these pitchers hope to report.

For yet others still we feel an overwhelming sense of “Yes, but...”. Yes, a full season but... Yes no injury but...Yes, playoffs but...Yes, my own best ever but...just a tinge of exasperation, a ‘what does it take’, a self-distrust, an inner rot, at laying out the best one has, of catching all the possible breaks, of seemingly making good on every bit of potential, yet coming up short. The slow realization that progress for you is incremental, and all there is left is return to the drawing board to improve, once again, in every way you can. For Jimenez, for Felix, for Nolasco, for Wainright, for Lester, is it thus. A cocked head, and furrowed brow: When will I know when I get there?

By the All-Star break, the title was apparently in the hands of two giants; one in stature, the other in name only. 6’5’’ Justin Verlander, fastball at 100, curve, change, on the first place Tigers, staring down the seasons last day to cut off the tailing Twins. 5’10’’ Tim Lincecum, reigning champ, fastball at 100, curve, change, on the far back third place Giants. The narrative told of two titans, trading blows to the end, in which we found circumstance to weigh heavily on the outcome. Whereas Verlander was Animal Farm’s Boxer, taking on more and more of a failing regime’s load falling on his right shoulder, Lincecum’s motherland had fallen back far enough that it nary mattered whether he would work harder or not. Therefore, he skipped a start and on September 14, the two titans sat side by side with half a month to go.



And with 11 k’s on the 24, more than the sum (9) of Lincecum’s lead (2) and effort on the 25th (7) Verlander was in the clear for good. When the dust of the race had settled, the sun fallen and risen brightly anew, we sat with a new strikeout leader Verlander 269, and an old champ dethroned, Lincecum 261.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

The Santana Formerly Known as Johan

4th on the oh-eight list....
Not the Santana you expected find here. Even today, straight odds bet, which Santana would you peg to have more K’s in 2009? I’d probably take yo-jan too. [What’s really crazy is that Ervin’s name was Johan but he changed it in 2003 because the then Twin’s ace was already famous]

Anyhow, to continue with my general theme of just taking what I find on FanGraphs and putting it into text and passing it off as insight, I think Santana’s 2009 is fascinating. This time the pitch type mining is telling, or at least bears repeating on a second site.

Remember what I said about AJ? Dished the change, just throw the heat and the deuce? So Santana’s go to breaking pitch has been deemed a slider by the pitch tracking algorithm of Baseball Info Solutions, but the story is pretty similar, but way more exaggerated in the case of The Shaker.

For the last 4 years, Flatbrim Santana has thrown his fastball 61.7, 60.9, 61.9 and 61.4 percent of the time (2005-08). Nothing changed there. The velocity of his fastball in those four years went 93.4, 93.1, 92.2, 94.4. So he had a fastball, lost a tick, then last year it came back stronger. Kinda cool. His velocity correlates with his ERA, but not his K rate, which actually went up a little in ’07 before jumping a whole bunch in ‘08.
Now, off-speed stuff.
Change up: 10% 9.6% 5.5% 3.9% (tumble, tumble, tumble)
Curve ball: 6.3% 8.5% 8.7% 0.8% ( la-di-da plummet)
Slider: 21.7% 21% 24.4% 33.9% (slider use jumps in 2008)
So, do you think throwing the slider more is a good thing for Senior Flatbrim? And maybe that change-up and curve just aren’t all they’re chalked up to be…

Fun with excel:
Do you see in that second graph? The correlation between Sanatana’s yearly strikeout rate (K / batters faced) and yearly percentage of pitches which were sliders? R2 of 0.9995? I ain’t no math magician and I know there’s only 4 values for 4 years of data, but…well, you can decide if you think it’s just random or not. I guess if he gets in more strikeout counts he uses the pitch more, so to be objective I admit this could be effect or getting to good counts with the fastball, not because the amount of sliders matters, but screw that.

The last thing I did was watch some MLB.com highlight reels. There are punch outs with both the fastball and the slider, but more often with the slider and more often swining. Interesting in 2009 will be if Sanatana maintains this two pitch style, and if his limited repertoire catches up. Will batters lay of the sliders in the dirt the more they realize that’s his MO? Will scouting reports circulate to reduce his effectiveness? Certainly he maintained his effectiveness throughout 2008 but a little regression may be in order after such a sudden breakout.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

A man a site like this loves to love

Allan James Burnett
The bastard can pitch. Usually I bring out stats, numbers, data, blah, blah, blah. Ok, so I’m a jays fan. It came to pass that I watched a game or two of this man’s last few seasons and must divulge: his stuff is mephitic. Nay; that wont suffice. His arsenal is... mephitic, iniquitous, squalid, verminous, virulent, pernicious, pestiferous and occasionally internecine.

That fastball, man, you swear it’s a two-seamer, a sinker, he must have taken a little off allowing it to drive hard back to the plate after forcing a left hander off it. First the ump punches the dude out, and then the radar gun catches up as AJs walking off the field: 97? 97 are you kidding? Are you fucking kidding? He makes a ninety seven mile-per-hour fastball take a right turn three quarters of the way there. Some times it’s just straight gas at 99 and you close your mouth and shake your head.

As for his off-speed pitches, in Toronto baseball circles there was always this discussion about how often he used his change-up in the same tones as if it were how often his took vitamin pills or ate his vegetables. It was always fair to point out that he would never be great with just two pitches, and that he had to use the change-up both to improve it as a pitch and because it would make his other pitches better. Well, he didn’t use it much last year. And that was ok. really.
The press shut up about the change-up well before K# 231.

How he manages as a two pitch pitcher is that his deuce is a decidedly devious and deceitful delivery. You see counts were it’s an obvious off-speed count and the batter chases a deuce in the dirt anyways. Or, he can throw a couple early (the batter's always take these) and worry about finishing the count with the heat. High, low, outside, or bust’m in’n break a bat. Usually you see AJ's catcher move his glove from the intended target to catch the ball. The batters still misses so [shrug] it's all good.


He’s going to be slinging for those bombers of the Bronx next few summers. But screw all that jibe about his mental and physical fragility under New York pressure. Screw the days when he’s hurt. Screw the days when he pisses of the press and the fans and it's all anyonw talks about. Screw the days when he grows his goatee (or pitches) like a goat. Burnett is a distant star waiting to supernova: ignore the dim light from before, or black sky left after, its brightest moment should be all you remeber. Enjoy watching him pitch. Enjoy the walk and the bomb fingered in-between the three strike-outs in an inning. Enjoy the high pitch counts meaning he can only get 12 K’s because he’s pulled in the 7th. Most of all, enjoy knowing that deuce is coming, knowing the fans know it’s coming, watching the catcher puts the sign down to too briefly for AJ to have seen it but he’s already nodding anyways, and knowing the batter knows it’s coming too, then watching a swing through that mortiferous curveball.

Monday, March 2, 2009

CC Sabathia

HOW DOES HE DO IT?

- Well like, he’s big.
– Ok.
– I mean real big.
– Ok.
– Ok.
- …
- Like, this big, yo:


ah, whatagreatphoto.

Anyhow, the way he does it is to miss bats. I used to think of Sabathia as being good for throwing a lot of innings and not walking guys, but when batters swing they often miss. Of all qualified starters, CC had the lowest batter contact percentage on swings inside the strike-zone (80%) and total swings (72%). More than anything about Sabathia, those numbers really should just illustrate how cool FanGraphs.com and an excel spreadsheet can be. [Incase you were wondering: At the other end of the spectrum, swings on pitches in the strike zone thrown by Livan Hernandez where hit 95% of the time].

WHY HE’LL DO BETTER IN 2009.
So the way I see it, he’ll continue to raise his strikeout rate for ever. Until, uh…I don’t know; I guess we’ll know when he gets there.
The trajectory is good. He lasts longer and longer in games and strikes out more batters. At 27, his average fastball speed actually went up a touch from 2007 (92.9  93.7 mph). This complements a change-up and slider which he dishes out at about equal frequency (25% and 20% respectively).

WHY HE’LL DO BETTER IN 2008.
Credit to the Milwaukee Brewers, maybe they –like me- watched ‘The Corporation’ and learned something about things with costs you don’t have to pay for. While they could, the brew crew used C.C. about as often (and effectively) as Barack Obama uses the words ‘Hope’ and ‘Change’ knowing that they, unlike the president, would never have to deal with the legacy of such excess. That whole deal with injuries, fatigue, and equal distribution of labor went out the window because they more or less knew he was gone next April. The consequences of inhumane any slave driving would be the worry of some future employer anyways. In his 17 Brewers starts he was lifted before 100 pitches 3 times and before 96 pitches never. While I’m not saying he can’t handle it, I am saying the Brian Cashman can’t handle the thought of it. It’s my prophecy that with an eye to protecting their 7 year investment the yank’s will restrain their fattest lefty since David Wells from too many 120 pitch games or an inning count which approximates (even remotely) his weight.

Lastly, should anyone else, as I naively did, suspect that his strikeout rate must have jumped in the senior circuit and would be prone to a plummet upon return to the DH league, I note that his strikeout rate was very consistent for both the Indians and Brewers (24.3% and 24.8%). However, American League batters fanned a 3216 fewer times than National League batters or 2% less often. So regardless of the small Sabathian sample from 2008, Carston Charles is moving to the league whose bats are more difficult to miss.
-Aw, but dude, he’s sooooo big…

Sunday, March 1, 2009

TIMMMYYYYYY!!! sorry, that was obnoxious

On September 28 Tim Lincecum took the mound against the Dodgers at Pac Bell Park (–Pac Bell? are you for real? – just a little stubborn). A few hours earlier C.C. Sabathia had made his final start and, in punching out seven, brought his season total to 251. Lincecum sat at 252. However, Giant’s game that day is enough to inspire wishful thoughts not only that pitchers care about the strikeout race with some of the interest of this website, but also that Lincecum had yet to receive the news that he had the strikeout race all but locked up prior to his start. In any event, striking out the first 4 batters, recording the first nine outs by way of the strike out, and finishing his day’s K-ing with number 13 to end the 7th inning, ‘the freak’ cemented himself as the season total leader (baring of course a 173 strikeout performance by Nick Blackburn in the season’s final game (he managed only 3.))

The opposing Dodgers faced a fastball ranging as high as 98 mph or at lower velocities with 2-seam action, a biting breaking pitch, and a devilish change up. The curve and fastball worked counts to Lincecum’s favor where the change up was frequently the coup- de-gras. It becomes at times difficult to differentiate the 2-seam fastball and the change up. Presumably an 86-87 mph pitch with arm side run is the change up and a similar movement in a pitch at 92 mph is the fastball. At around 90-or 89 mph the distinction is less clear.

Looking at year long data on FanGraphs.com, Timmy’s average fastball was ~94.1 mph which he threw 66.1% of the time (the league average heater among qualified starting pitchers was 90.26 mph, and this pitch was thrown about 59% of the time). There are of course other pitchers who throw more fastballs and faster fastballs but with his three pitch mix Lincecum was more than capable of missing bats.

As any reliever knows, Lincecums 14 K victory margin in the season total tally -and of course any victory in the strikeout race- is attributable to more than how often you’re missing batters you face - you’ve got to face a lot of batters. 2008 saw Tim Lincecum square up against 928 batters last year, 7th in the league. Nothing wrong with that, but facing batters often correlates to throwing pitches. While Lincecum’s September 28 start was efficient for it’s fanning of 13 with only 103 pitches, (interesting note; did you realize Ricky Nolasco struck out 13 last year on only 93 pitches? [Insert prolonged - Clay Davis of ‘The Wire’ fame - “shiiiiiiiiiiiiit!” here] but I digress) for the year Lincecum threw 3682 pitches, second most (to a certain hefty lefty’s 3814) in all of baseball.

OK, I’m sure you’ve heard it all before;
-oh my god he’s so small. Save his poor arm, you’ll kill him. Honey, they’ll kill him!
-he’s a freak he can handle it. His daddy taught him to pitch like that, so he can’t get hurt.
-in the good old days we threw 3682 pitches everyday before breakfast
-TomVerducciRanyJazayerliWillCarrollMarkPriorRamonMartinezDocGoodenMARKPRIOR!!!


What I’m saying is, Mr. Bochy didn’t bother to get off his duff to collect a tired ace-on-the-hill whole lot last year. Even for a site which professes to eschew all concerns for winning and loosing baseball games, the relative merit-or licentiousness- of Bruce Douglas Bochy is hereby called into question. Should we champion him for giving Lincecum ample opportunity for greatness (as we here define it), or curse his soul for riding the right limb on the bony frame of a young child too much too soon and by his managerial inertia lay bear this promising marvel to a fate of arthritic ineptitude before he reaches his first day of free agency?

Skirting this difficult question of use, abuse and injury, another question is if Mr. Bochy’s tactics will be different if the Giants contend like they hope to in 2009. (Obviously there is a very big chance the Giants, once again, will blow and this point will be moot.) But, a contending team is a little more likely to want to pinch hit, or go to the pen in a close game. [Unsubstantiated claim warning ! I have no data to support that. I’ll look into it some other time.] Conversely, it is possible that the sight of a division title within reach will only inspire B.D.B. to further affix his rump to the pine leaving Lincecum and his funky delivery to fare as they may against the ravages of, say, 138 pitches, like September 13th en route to a complete game shutout.

Prior to the 2008 season, Baseball Prospectus, as they do every year, projected with the self proclaimed ‘Deadly Accurate’ PECOTA the stats of every major league baseball player in the upcoming season. A difficult task no doubt – one that I’m sure not up to- and one I’m sure they would admit is inherently doomed to many failures small and large.

MESSER

PECOTA 08 K’s

SANATANA

230

PEAVY

223

BEDARD

196

KAZMIR

194

SABATHIA

179

GALLARDO

177

VAZQUEZ

177

BECKETT

176

HAMELS

176

HARANG

176

HAREN

175

ZAMBRANO

173

MATSU

170

SMOLTZ

169

WEBB

167

LACKEY

166

BURNETT

163

CHAMBERLIN

162

VERLANDER

161

HILL

160

Notably absent from this top twenty list when viewed with hindsight is the eventual winner, Tim LeRoy Lincecum. PECOTA forsaw a mere 133 strikeouts for the 24 year old righty in 23 starts. Most of its error was in his playing time; had it known he would launch the first pitch in 33 games we can prorate it’s projection to 190 strikeouts – still 75 short of his eventual total. Baseball Think Factory’s ZIPS system pumped out a 173 strikeout conjecture bracketed by 15% optimistic/pessimistic projections of 126 or 230 punch outs – still 35 short at the high end. This is not to criticize these projection systems, but to note that it was far from clear that Timmy would walk away with the leading total as he did.

In Lincecum’s last start September 28th, the rival Dodgers pulled Hiroki Kiroda for the young Clayton Kershaw. The 20 year old Kershaw was in his debut season of about 20 starts, and punching out batters with a heater, a duce and a change piece, much as Lincecum had been in 2007. So I’ll conclude with this; as much as Lincecum is with out a doubt the leader in the clubhouse and favorite for the ‘09 season title, perhaps he too shall be eclipsed by another (for instance Kershaw) who as of yet is off the radar in terms of contenders for the 2009 Strikeout Race.







Saturday, February 28, 2009

POST # 2!

Ok, so posts here a few and far apart from being close together at this point. So I’m no David Pinto, whatever. There are a lot of not good reasons for that but I’m still getting used to the whole regular writing while doing everything else I do thing. Plus, I’m still not ecstatic about the way this site looks/I don’t know how to really generate traffic to a blog and I think these should be improved before I really invest a lot of time here. But right now I feel like filling up this blank space so…wtf


Now, the real object of this post was to look at the top ten in strikeouts from last year. Those are presented here along with their innings pitched and K/9 (thank you god – er- Baseball Reference (an honest mistake) for the data).

Pitcher

Total Ks

K/9

Innings

Games Started

Lincecum

265

10.51

227.0

33

Sabathia

251

8.93

253.0

35

Burnett

231

9.39

221.3

34

Santana (LAA)

214

8.79

219.0

34

Halladay

206

7.54

246.0

33

Haren

206

8.58

216.0

33

Santana (NYM)

206

7.92

234.3

34

Volquez

206

9.46

196.0

32

Billingsley

201

9.01

200.7

32

Vazquez

200

8.64

208.3

33

Caption Here: So what you may have noticed about this table, if you’re yet to get the gist of this site, is that it’s a pretty incomplete picture of the relative merit of these pitchers. Instead it looks only at strikeouts and things relevant total season strikeouts. That’s just what this site is: get over it. embrace it.


So there’s two ways to aim for the top as K-race defines it (most K’s per year): strike guys out when you them, or strike some guys out but face a whole lot of them. The supreme deity of this site is Nolan Ryan for setting the single season strikeout record at 383 in 1973. The Ryan express of ’73, as you might expect, excelled at both K/9 (1st in ML at 10.57 ahead of Tom Seaver at 7.79) and innings pitched (326.0, 3rd in ML behind Wilbur Wood and Gaylord Perry with 359.3 and 344.0 respectively). In 2008’s top ten class, the poles are Harry LeRoy Halladay who flung 246 innings at a mere 7.54/9 clip and Timéeee who blew’m away 10.51/9 and threw only- well yeah, …uh, he threw a ton of innings too. I think I’ll stick his photo up on this site to commemorate his 2008 feat.


Thinking about this a bit, I realize that K/9 and innings might not be the best angle. I know over at Baseball Analysts they’re in bed with K/ 100 pitches, bbbbuuuutttt that’s really more of a thing for how efficient, or how good, or how merry, or how something pitchers are other than how prone to rack up K’s they are.

OK, maybe I’ll give that idea some thought later, but right now I’m thinking strikeouts per batters faced. More simply, % of batters faced that a pitcher strikes out. That’s really as simple as it gets. It eliminates all the noise that is the fates of the batters that a pitcher doesn’t strike out.

Rank

Pitcher

Strikeout %

Rank

Pitcher

Strikeout %

1

Rich Harden

30.420168

61

Adam Wainwright

16.727941

2

Tim Lincecum

28.556034

62

Todd Wellemeyer

16.604709

3

Scott Kazmir

25.897036

63

Matt Garza

16.580311

4

Edinson Volquez

24.582339

64

Gavin Floyd

16.514806

5

CC Sabathia

24.535679

65

Jorge Campillo

16.335878

6

A.J. Burnett

24.137931

66

Carlos Zambrano

16.331658

7

Ervin Santana

23.857302

67

Kevin Millwood

16.297262

8

Josh Beckett

23.724138

68

Paul Maholm

16.295428

9

Jake Peavy

23.413258

69

Dana Eveland

16.010855

10

Chad Billingsley

23.399302

70

Jason Bergmann

15.635179

11

Dan Haren

23.38252

71

Tim Wakefield

15.517241

12

Jonathan Sanchez

22.589928

72

Cha Seung Baek

15.282392

13

Javier Vazquez

22.47191

73

Mark Buehrle

15.250545

14

Jorge De La Rosa

22.416813

74

Tim Redding

15.17067

15

Wandy Rodriguez

22.316865

75

Andy Sonnanstine

15.140415

16

Randy Johnson

22.236504

76

Jeremy Guthrie

15.075377

17

Ryan Dempster

21.845794

77

John Lannan

15.019255

18

Daisuke Matsuzaka

21.50838

78

Hiroki Kuroda

14.948454

19

Zack Greinke

21.504113

79

Tim Hudson

14.834206

20

Cole Hamels

21.444201

80

Jeff Francis

14.779874

21

Ricky Nolasco

21.428571

81

Barry Zito

14.669927

22

Ted Lilly

21.370499

82

Jamie Moyer

14.625446

23

Johan Santana

21.369295

83

Dave Bush

14.285714

24

Oliver Perez

21.251476

84

Nate Robertson

14.191853

25

Roy Halladay

20.871327

85

Kyle Lohse

14.183552

26

Gil Meche

20.654628

86

Brian Bannister

13.933416

27

Johnny Cueto

20.546164

87

Greg Smith

13.875

28

Felix Hernandez

20.42007

88

Mark Hendrickson

13.728814

29

Jered Weaver

20.402685

89

Edwin Jackson

13.636364

30

John Maine

20.065789

90

Jesse Litsch

13.469388

31

Scott Baker

20.056899

91

Garrett Olson

13.365539

32

Brett Myers

19.95104

92

Scott Olsen

13.216374

33

Matt Cain

19.935691

93

Miguel Batista

13.129496

34

Manny Parra

19.838057

94

Joe Blanton

12.982456

35

Ubaldo Jimenez

19.815668

95

Mike Pelfrey

12.925969

36

John Danks

19.776119

96

Jarrod Washburn

12.888889

37

Randy Wolf

19.684083

97

Braden Looper

12.826603

38

Shaun Marcum

19.52381

98

Joe Saunders

12.763321

39

Ben Sheets

19.458128

99

Luke Hochevar

12.720848

40

Brandon Webb

19.385593

100

Brian Moehler

12.615385

41

Aaron Harang

19.293821

101

Joel Pineiro

12.55814

42

John Lackey

19.259259

102

Jason Marquis

12.330623

43

Roy Oswalt

19.141531

103

Greg Maddux

12.189055

44

Cliff Lee

19.079686

104

Jeremy Sowers

12.007505

45

Kevin Slowey

18.836141

105

Nick Blackburn

11.664642

46

Bronson Arroyo

18.714122

106

Daniel Cabrera

11.571255

47

Justin Verlander

18.522727

107

Jeff Suppan

11.538462

48

Mike Mussina

18.315018

108

Scott Feldman

11.367127

49

James Shields

18.244014

109

Glen Perkins

11.195159

50

Andy Pettitte

17.934166

110

Aaron Cook

10.835214

51

Ian Snell

17.624021

111

Paul Byrd

10.775296

52

Jon Lester

17.391304

112

Brian Burres

10.57047

53

Derek Lowe

17.273796

113

Fausto Carmona

10.564663

54

Doug Davis

17.230769

114

Zach Duke

10.494572

55

Jair Jurrjens

17.097171

115

Kenny Rogers

10.485934

56

Justin Duchscherer

17.055655

116

Jon Garland

10.416667

57

Armando Galarraga

16.89008

117

Carlos Silva

10.014514

58

Brandon Backe

16.798942

118

Sidney Ponson

9.4771242

59

Vicente Padilla

16.77675

119

Kyle Kendrick

9.4182825

60

Odalis Perez

16.73699

120

Livan Hernandez

8.2614057


Title of Caption Now I know this chart is way too big to post but dam it I decided to post it any ways now get of my l back. Should I have shown the top 20 pitchers instead of top 120? Yes.


Ok, so what’s to be seen here is that Rich Harden is Bitchin’ and Livan Hernandez is a bitch: bitch. The Doctor was 5th in overall K’s despite K’ing a mere 20.87%. Also, is Wandy Rodriguez is Jorge De La Rosa really that high? It is so.


All right, in the name of nerdiness I’ve made a graph. This is the percentage of batters a pitchers K’s in a game plotted versus the number of batters a pitcher usually faces in a game.

Mr. Kendrick, if you ever finish in the top then in strikeouts, I will marvel. (Isn’t that bold of me?) Note: The X-axis is Batters Faced per Game, not per Game Started, but all pitchers with five or more relief appearances were not listed – I don’t know where to find stats uniquely for started games. No. I’m too lazy to mine each players splits stats and subtract strikeout and batters faced stats from relief appearances. Sue me. I’ve passed the bar, I’ll win. (That is a lie).


Interesting is that the Kazmirs and Hardens didn’t face that many batters in the games they pitched. Thus while games were missed to injury, they also weren’t necessarily positioned to top the total K list despite high K%’s. And Wandy Warhol Rodriguez really doesn’t stick around games too long, does he?

If I was feeling industrious I’d make up some sort of “K factor” that would take into account this data and suggest the pitchers expected # of K’s given a full season. But, I’m not feeling industrious. I’ll work on that later.


So the whole point of this post was to set up future analysis of pitchers. As you can see there are two lines of focus. The K’s, and the batters faced. The K’s are much more under the control of the pitchers. Batters faced has to do with the quality, durability and efficiency of the pitcher and also managers, NL/AL, team offence(?) and some other stuff which pitchers cannot control. A final area of focus is probably injuries, which determines the number of times a pitcher is run out there, as well as possibly having an impact on the first two; ie, did Kazmir’s injury limit his ability to pitch deep in games, or strike people out?


Ok, this might be a bit dull for a post, but in future posts I’ll look at pitchers one at a time with a mind to their likely position on the 2009 strikeout leader board.


Disco.