Monday, March 2, 2009

CC Sabathia

HOW DOES HE DO IT?

- Well like, he’s big.
– Ok.
– I mean real big.
– Ok.
– Ok.
- …
- Like, this big, yo:


ah, whatagreatphoto.

Anyhow, the way he does it is to miss bats. I used to think of Sabathia as being good for throwing a lot of innings and not walking guys, but when batters swing they often miss. Of all qualified starters, CC had the lowest batter contact percentage on swings inside the strike-zone (80%) and total swings (72%). More than anything about Sabathia, those numbers really should just illustrate how cool FanGraphs.com and an excel spreadsheet can be. [Incase you were wondering: At the other end of the spectrum, swings on pitches in the strike zone thrown by Livan Hernandez where hit 95% of the time].

WHY HE’LL DO BETTER IN 2009.
So the way I see it, he’ll continue to raise his strikeout rate for ever. Until, uh…I don’t know; I guess we’ll know when he gets there.
The trajectory is good. He lasts longer and longer in games and strikes out more batters. At 27, his average fastball speed actually went up a touch from 2007 (92.9  93.7 mph). This complements a change-up and slider which he dishes out at about equal frequency (25% and 20% respectively).

WHY HE’LL DO BETTER IN 2008.
Credit to the Milwaukee Brewers, maybe they –like me- watched ‘The Corporation’ and learned something about things with costs you don’t have to pay for. While they could, the brew crew used C.C. about as often (and effectively) as Barack Obama uses the words ‘Hope’ and ‘Change’ knowing that they, unlike the president, would never have to deal with the legacy of such excess. That whole deal with injuries, fatigue, and equal distribution of labor went out the window because they more or less knew he was gone next April. The consequences of inhumane any slave driving would be the worry of some future employer anyways. In his 17 Brewers starts he was lifted before 100 pitches 3 times and before 96 pitches never. While I’m not saying he can’t handle it, I am saying the Brian Cashman can’t handle the thought of it. It’s my prophecy that with an eye to protecting their 7 year investment the yank’s will restrain their fattest lefty since David Wells from too many 120 pitch games or an inning count which approximates (even remotely) his weight.

Lastly, should anyone else, as I naively did, suspect that his strikeout rate must have jumped in the senior circuit and would be prone to a plummet upon return to the DH league, I note that his strikeout rate was very consistent for both the Indians and Brewers (24.3% and 24.8%). However, American League batters fanned a 3216 fewer times than National League batters or 2% less often. So regardless of the small Sabathian sample from 2008, Carston Charles is moving to the league whose bats are more difficult to miss.
-Aw, but dude, he’s sooooo big…

No comments:

Post a Comment